May 072015

Following on from yesterday’s post, I had a bit of feedback that I was being a bit harsh just having one colour for all the negative returns and also asking it for silver and in Australian dollars. Below is the USD gold chart from yesterday updated and the additional.


This version does show that most of the “wasteland” is less than a negative 5% compound return, but it also does show some “black holes”, highlighting gold’s volatility over short timeframes.


The silver matrix shows a lot more variability than gold, and lower returns in general for the same time periods. Of concern is the greater prevalence of negative returns to the left of the 20 year line, which is not what you want to see if you are investing for retirement. This is a demonstration of silver’s higher volatility.


The AUD charts only start in 1975 as that is when The Perth Mint has reliable daily data. Compared to USD gold, Australian investors do not see as much volatility as our American cousins – there is a lot less negative area in this matrix but also not as much outstanding returns.


AUD silver likewise has a lot less risk than USD silver but we still see higher volatility than AUD gold and that impact of the 1980 bubble can be see by the light orange negative areas beyond the 20 year line for investors unfortunate enough to buy in the early 1980s (assuming they are still holdings on, that is!).